Experts say Baldwin prosecutors likely to try Stephen Nodine again on murder, stalking charges

Published: Wednesday, December 22, 2010, 5:30 AM

BAY MINETTE, Ala. — A Baldwin County judge Tuesday set a new trial date for former Mobile County Commissioner Stephen Nodine on murder and stalking charges, but it will be up to the new district attorney to decide if the state moves forward.

A jury on Monday convicted Nodine of a misdemeanor ethics violation but could not reach a unanimous verdict on charges that he stalked and killed his girlfriend, Angel Downs.

Circuit Judge Charles Partin scheduled the possible retrial for Feb. 28. Hallie Dixon, who defeated Baldwin County District Attorney Judy Newcomb in the Republican primary, will take office next month.

Newcomb said Monday that she believes the new administration should try the case again. Dixon said that she wants a chance to review the case and talk to Downs’ family before making a decision.

The Feb. 28 date keeps the case in the system but is not a hard date. Either side could request a delay. Since Newcomb prosecuted the case herself, several experts suggested, Dixon would need more than two months to put a new case together.

Jurors have said they split 9-3 in favor of conviction, which experts said is an important factor in a decision to retry a case.

“I’d say if it was a 9-3 split the other way, I’d go home,” said Mobile County District Attorney John Tyson Jr.

Tyson, who leaves office next month, said he believes it is likely Baldwin prosecutors will give it another try. The split, the strength of the evidence and the type of crime are all factors to consider, he said.

“The more serious the charge, the more seriously you have to take a look at the evidence, and the more seriously you have to think about the decision to do it or not,” he said.

Dixon said that deadlocked juries sometimes can spur plea bargains. But defense attorney Dennis Knizley said his client has maintained his innocence from the beginning and that a plea deal has been “off the table” from the start.

Dixon said that in any case that ends with a deadlocked jury, she will re-evaluate the entire case to gauge how likely it is that a second trial will end in conviction. How the first jury divided is a factor, she said.

“It’s not a mathematical equation by any means,” she said. “But in a general sense, I think it does affect the likelihood of success in the future.”

If there is a second trial, Knizley said Tuesday, he anticipates asking that it be moved to another jurisdiction. Although Knizley did not ask for a change of venue before the first trial, he said media coverage would make it extremely difficult to get a fair jury.

“There was absolute saturation during the trial, including the Twitter,” he said, referring to blow-by-blow accounts provided by TV reporters through the social networking site.

Since prosecutors are elected, outside influences sometimes can enter the decision to retry a high-profile case, some said.

“Politics can be a factor,” said. Deborah Young, a former federal prosecutor who followed the Nodine case. “And public opinion can be a factor.”

Young, who now teaches at Samford University’s Cumberland School of Law in Birmingham, said part of a prosecutor’s decision springs from how strong he or she feels the case is.

“Prosecutors always retry a case when they’re surprised by the result,” she said.

Experts said a second trial gives both sides an opportunity to address shortcomings exposed by the first trial. Which side benefits more? Experts said that depends on the case.

“Often, only the prosecutor puts on real evidence,” said Young.

Others said the prosecutors usually have less knowledge about the defense strategy than vice versa before the first trial, which means prosecutors have the upper hand in a retrial.

“Conventional wisdom is that a hung jury is a victory for the defense because there’s no conviction,” said Don Cochran, a Cumberland professor who previously worked as a state and federal prosecutor in Jefferson County. “I never really viewed it that way as a prosecutor.”

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Roll With The Cycles, Grab Some Cisco While It’s Cheap Again

Darwin's ideas work in stocks, too

“If I’d known I was going to live this long, I would have taken better care of myself.” – Eubie Blake, American composer (1887–1983)

You cannot underestimate the power of cycles.? They reoccur in nature, business, and financial markets with great regularity.? When we ignore them, cycles seem obvious in hindsight.? Foresight is where you’ll make your money.

Time frames may be different based on secular trends, weather phenomenon, innovations in health care, and government intervention, but generally, what goes around, comes around.? For example, economic booms and busts occurred, on average, every 14 years for 2,000 years.?Beginning in the late 20th?century, they began cycling every seven years as a direct result of government efforts to stimulate economic activity during recessionary downturns.? While they occur more frequently, they’re cycles nonetheless.

Tall Parents Have Shorter Children, On Average
Charles Darwin and his cousin, Francis Galton, were the first to note that tall parents have shorter children, on average, and vice versa.? With Karl Pearson, they studied over one thousand father and son pairs.? Galton termed this phenomenon in nature “regression to mediocrity.”? Since then, the method of studying how one variable leads to another variable has been called “regression analysis.”

Financial market observers see it all the time.? Excessively high prices eventually lead to excessively low prices.? The key to succeeding as an investor is knowing where the excesses are when they’re happening and exploiting them.

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“Joining The Dow Can Be The Kiss Of Death”
In September, Jeff Reeves of InvestorPlace.com conducted research showing that by the time companies have grown to become the recognized leaders in their industries, share prices are inflated.? For example, turning the clock back to March 1999 when the Dow Jones Averages closed above 10,000 for the first time, then crested to 11,000 a few months later, four of the biggest names of the day joined the Dow 30. Here’s how they fared: AT&T (then SBC Communications), down 38%; Intel, down 50%;?Microsoft, down 47%;?Home Depot, ?down 38%.

During subsequent reformulations of the Dow Jones Industrial Average, laggards were replaced with other leaders of the time.? They included Pfizer, Verizon, Bank of America, Cisco, and AIG.? As a group, these stocks have been shellacked since they joined the Dow 30, but along the way they have continued to make a lot of money for anyone who purchased shares when stock prices were excessively low.? Many have tripled off of lows in 2003 and 2009.

The point is this: You cannot fight the power and magnitude of cycles.? They can make or break an investor.? Here’s one stock that appears far too low right now:

Fallen Angels Focus Stock: Cisco Systems? (CSCO, 20.15)

Cisco is the dominant player in the global networking industry.? Shares plummeted more than 16% on ?Thursday following a less than stellar outlook presented by company management.? While management cited near term challenges, we believe the selling has provided an attractive entry point for longer-term investors.

The company has a solid balance sheet, operating profit margins of more than 20% and net margins in the high teens.? Our fair value estimate (based on discounted cash flow analysis) is $30 per share; providing investors with 50% potential upside from current levels.

Gabriel Wisdom and clients of American Money Management LLC, including mutual funds managed by AMM may buy or sell securities mentioned without prior notice.

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Roll With The Cycles, Grab Some Cisco While It’s Cheap Again

Darwin's ideas work in stocks, too

“If I’d known I was going to live this long, I would have taken better care of myself.” – Eubie Blake, American composer (1887–1983)

You cannot underestimate the power of cycles.? They reoccur in nature, business, and financial markets with great regularity.? When we ignore them, cycles seem obvious in hindsight.? Foresight is where you’ll make your money.

Time frames may be different based on secular trends, weather phenomenon, innovations in health care, and government intervention, but generally, what goes around, comes around.? For example, economic booms and busts occurred, on average, every 14 years for 2,000 years.?Beginning in the late 20th?century, they began cycling every seven years as a direct result of government efforts to stimulate economic activity during recessionary downturns.? While they occur more frequently, they’re cycles nonetheless.

Tall Parents Have Shorter Children, On Average
Charles Darwin and his cousin, Francis Galton, were the first to note that tall parents have shorter children, on average, and vice versa.? With Karl Pearson, they studied over one thousand father and son pairs.? Galton termed this phenomenon in nature “regression to mediocrity.”? Since then, the method of studying how one variable leads to another variable has been called “regression analysis.”

Financial market observers see it all the time.? Excessively high prices eventually lead to excessively low prices.? The key to succeeding as an investor is knowing where the excesses are when they’re happening and exploiting them.

Special Offer: Make the most of explosive moves in gold and silver but don’t get left holding the bag when it’s time to run.? Click here for instant access to market timing analysis and specific gold, silver and hard asset model portfolios in Curtis Hesler’s?Professional Timing Service.

“Joining The Dow Can Be The Kiss Of Death”
In September, Jeff Reeves of InvestorPlace.com conducted research showing that by the time companies have grown to become the recognized leaders in their industries, share prices are inflated.? For example, turning the clock back to March 1999 when the Dow Jones Averages closed above 10,000 for the first time, then crested to 11,000 a few months later, four of the biggest names of the day joined the Dow 30. Here’s how they fared: AT&T (then SBC Communications), down 38%; Intel, down 50%;?Microsoft, down 47%;?Home Depot, ?down 38%.

During subsequent reformulations of the Dow Jones Industrial Average, laggards were replaced with other leaders of the time.? They included Pfizer, Verizon, Bank of America, Cisco, and AIG.? As a group, these stocks have been shellacked since they joined the Dow 30, but along the way they have continued to make a lot of money for anyone who purchased shares when stock prices were excessively low.? Many have tripled off of lows in 2003 and 2009.

The point is this: You cannot fight the power and magnitude of cycles.? They can make or break an investor.? Here’s one stock that appears far too low right now:

Fallen Angels Focus Stock: Cisco Systems? (CSCO, 20.15)

Cisco is the dominant player in the global networking industry.? Shares plummeted more than 16% on ?Thursday following a less than stellar outlook presented by company management.? While management cited near term challenges, we believe the selling has provided an attractive entry point for longer-term investors.

The company has a solid balance sheet, operating profit margins of more than 20% and net margins in the high teens.? Our fair value estimate (based on discounted cash flow analysis) is $30 per share; providing investors with 50% potential upside from current levels.

Gabriel Wisdom and clients of American Money Management LLC, including mutual funds managed by AMM may buy or sell securities mentioned without prior notice.

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